Southwest Florida Real Estate Market Update (New for November 2023)

The Fed could start cutting rates as soon as March as inflation cools and how did the real estate market perform in the month of October across Southwest Florida?

Hey there! I’m Marcus Larrea, Team Lead at Palm Paradise Real Estate. Today, I've got some exciting updates about the real estate market for you, especially if you're thinking of buying or selling in Southwest Florida.

Let's dive into the October numbers for Lee and Collier Counties. In Lee County, we've seen a slight increase in sales for the second month in a row. However, year-to-date sales for single-family homes, condos, and townhomes are still down compared to last year.

Single Family Stats for October 2023

Lee County
Oct 2022Oct 2023% (+-)
Closed Sales 750 978 30.4%
Closed Sales YTD 13,034 11,723 -10.1%
Median Sale Price $427,000 $400,000 -6.3%
Average Sale Price $532,917 $543,143 1.9%
(Inventory) Active Listings 4,974 6,918 39.1%
Months Supply of Inventory 7 7 0%
Close Price to List Price Ratio 98.90% 98% -0.7%
Median Time to Contract 20 34 70%
Collier County
Oct 2022Oct 2023% (+-)
Closed Sales 359 343 -4.5%
Closed Sales YTD 4,800 4,185 -12.8%
Median Sale Price $800,000 $750,000 -6.3%
Average Sale Price $1,326,310 $1,183,953 -10.7%
(Inventory) Active Listings 2,352 2,460 4.6%
Months Supply of Inventory 6 7 16.7%
Close Price to List Price Ratio 97% 97% -0.5%
Median Time to Contract 34 34 0%

Townhouses & Condo Sales in October 2023

Lee County
Oct 2022Oct 2023% (+-)
Closed Sales 333 349 4.8%
Closed Sales YTD 5,797 4,783 -17.5%
Median Sale Price $331,000 $329,415 -0.5%
Average Sale Price $405,575 $416,115 2.6%
(Inventory) Active Listings 1,746 3,106 77.9%
Months Supply of Inventory 5 9 80%
Close Price to List Price Ratio 98% 97% -1%
Median Time to Contract 23 34 47.8%
Collier County
Oct 2022Oct 2023% (+-)
Closed Sales 394 315 -20.1%
Closed Sales YTD 5,328 4,437 -16.7%
Median Sale Price $450,000 $450,000 0%
Average Sale Price $639,201 $736,768 15.3%
(Inventory) Active Listings 1,700 2,350 38.2%
Months Supply of Inventory 4 7 75%
Close Price to List Price Ratio 97.40% 97% -0.8%
Median Time to Contract 22 32 45.5%

*Data pulled from Southwest Florida MLS on 11/7/2023

In Collier County, we have seen a decrease in transactions for both single-family homes and condos and townhomes through October 2023.

Now, talking about prices – in Lee County, they've remained stable from September to October. There's been a slight decrease in the median sale price for single-family homes and almost no change for townhomes and condos. Interestingly, the average sale price has actually increased a bit in both categories with some higher priced properties potentially pushing the average upwards.

In Collier County, we’re noticing similar trends with a decrease in median sale prices for single-family homes and stable prices for townhomes and condos.

Typically, around this time of year, prices tend to stabilize as we conclude the off-season months. But, as we move into the early months of 2024, we're expecting to see prices start to rise again with the seasonal market.

The inventory is growing, but it's important to note that many properties are still undergoing repairs or have open insurance claims from Hurricane Ian. However, newly constructed or recently updated homes are selling relatively quickly.

Now, let's talk about something really exciting – potential changes in interest rates!
Interest rate futures traders are growing increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates up to five times in 2024. Excitingly, they believe the first reduction might come as soon as March. This marks a significant shift, as it’s nearly two years since the Fed began its most robust rate-increasing efforts since the 1980s.

The CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks these expectations, shows that as of November 14th, the likelihood of a rate cut in March has jumped to about 27%, a notable increase from just 10.5% the day before.

This shift in expectations comes after the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released last Tuesday. Following this, traders are now expecting the Fed to stop increasing rates. They're also anticipating several rate reductions next year, signaling a potential change in the economic landscape.

This is great news for homeowners looking to refinance, home sellers and home buyers.

For home sellers, this will open a new wave of buyers who have been waiting for interest rates to drop. 

For home buyers, this will help with affordability. However, if you are considering purchasing a home, I suggest not waiting for rates to drop. Home prices have remained flat or have actually continued to increase nationally even with these high interest rates. When rates begin to drop, you will see a spike in buyer demand which will lead to more competition for existing inventory. Nationally and locally we have an inventory problem which has been the key factor in keeping prices up over the last 2 years while rates have increased. Prices will most likely begin to rise at a faster pace again as rates drop. So the saying date the rate and marry the home very much so applies to today’s market.

In today's market, it's crucial to work with an experienced agent who understands the local market dynamics. Our team at Palm Paradise Real Estate has helped over 600 families buy or sell homes in the past year across Southwest Florida. We're perfectly positioned to cater to your unique needs in this fast-paced market.

Are you interested in buying or selling? Do you have questions or need a free home valuation? Our expert team at Palm Paradise Real Estate is ready to assist you. Visit us at today to see how we can help!

Thanks for watching and we will see  you in the next one!

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